Staying Invested Through Election Years

By Lexington Wealth Management on August 16, 2024

MAY 10, 2024

Leave Your Political Opinions at the Polls

Many people often feel uneasy about investing during election years. Soundbites from debates and polls fill the airwaves making it difficult to decipher what may or may not impact the markets. This uncertainty tends to drive heightened emotions and biases for investors. As always, it is important to work with your financial advisor to ensure your investment plan aligns with your objectives and risk appetite. During periods of uncertainty, old adages ring true evermore, and investors are programmed to often forget:

It is important to recognize potential biases that may lead to sub-optimal decision-making. These biases are particularly common during election years:

Historical data shows that it is much more impactful to stay invested than to try and time the markets. Below are four takeaways for investing in election years:

1. Stocks Tend To Rise, Regardless of Which Party Holds Office
2. Staying Invested Through Election Cycles Historically Provides the Greatest Returns
3. The Stock Market Has Historically Appreciated During Election Years
4. Individuals Have Historically Increased Cash Allocations During Election Years, But Individuals WhoStay Invested Reap Greater Rewards

1. Stocks Tend to Rise, Regardless of Which Party Holds Office

Since 1933, there have been eight Democratic presidents, seven Republican presidents, 14 different recessions and a number of economic downturns. One thing has held true over this 90-year time period: the stock market appreciates over the long run. A $1,000 investment in the S&P 500 on the date of Franklin D. Roosevelt’s inauguration, March 4, 1933, would have been worth over $21 million at the end of 2023.1

Keeping fear and emotion out of investment decisions bodes well for the long-term. Regardless of which party holds office, over time stocks continue to rise.

2. Staying Invested Through Election Cycles Historically Provides the Greatest Returns

Some investors may think that stocks will underperform if a certain candidate or party is elected. Although changing fiscal, monetary and international policy do impact the economy, stock market returns are indifferent to who is the U.S. president, as seen above.

As the data shows, the greatest return on investment comes from staying invested through changing political parties. Staying fully invested through presidential cycles, regardless of which political party is in the White House, has historically generated the highest returns.²

¹ Source: Capital Group. As of January 1, 2024.
² Source: Bespoke Investment Group. As of March 20, 2024.

3. The Stock Market Has Historically Appreciated During Election Years

One might expect that heighted fear, volatility and uncertainty during presidential election years would result in stock market underperformance. The data shows otherwise.

Looking back to 1960, stocks have risen during 13 out of 16 election years (~81%), greater than the average historical probability of a positive year for the S&P 500 (73%).

In the long run, time in the market will beat timing the market. Working with your advisor and sticking to your investment plan, especially during presidential election years, is a prudent decision.

In addition, stocks tend to perform well near the presidential election date. During nine of the past 11 election years (2000 and 2008 as the outliers), on average stocks rallied during the 100 days preceding the election and were positive 100 days after the election.³

³ Source: J.P. Morgan. As of January 22, 2024.

4. Individuals Have Historically Increased Cash Allocations During Election Years, But Individuals Who Stay Invested Reap Greater Rewards

Cash allocations have historically risen during presidential election years, with equity fund flows lower in election years. For reference, during election years, an average of $50 billion flows into equity funds, relative to over $200 billion in the year following a presidential election.

Investors try to minimize risk in election years and increase risk after the election.⁴ This creates opportunities for those who stay patient. As Warren Buffet famously stated, “be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”

Three Hypothetical $10K Investment Strategies During an Election Year

⁴ Source: Capital Group. As of January 1, 2024.
⁵ Source: Capital Group. As of January 1, 2024.

Concluding Thoughts

Overall, investing through elections years can be a daunting task. We highlighted the historical data, and empirical evidence shows maintaining allocations in diversified portfolios, and not basing investment decisions on political parties, is the most probable way to increase total returns. As always, work with your financial advisor to understand your plan.

Disclosures

Lexington Wealth Management is a group comprised of investment professionals registered with Hightower Advisors, LLC, an SEC registered investment adviser. Some investment professionals may also be registered with Hightower Securities, LLC, member FINRA and SIPC. Advisory services are offered through Hightower Advisors, LLC. Securities are offered through Hightower Securities, LLC. All information referenced herein is from sources believed to be reliable. Lexington Wealth Management and Hightower Advisors, LLC have not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this document. Lexington Wealth Management and Hightower Advisors, LLC or any of its affiliates make no representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or for statements or errors or omissions, or results obtained from the use of this information. Lexington Wealth Management and Hightower Advisors, LLC or any of its affiliates assume no liability for any action made or taken in reliance on or relating in any way to the information. This document and the materials contained herein were created for informational purposes only; the opinions expressed are solely those of the author(s), and do not represent those of Hightower Advisors, LLC or any of its affiliates. Lexington Wealth Management and Hightower Advisors, LLC or any of its affiliates do not provide tax or legal advice. This material was not intended or written to be used or presented to any entity as tax or legal advice. Clients are urged to consult their tax nd/or legal advisor for related questions.